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Re: ANYONE WHO BUYS A HOUSE IN THIS CLIMATE IS RETARDED 15-Jan-10 04:28 AM

An opinion from another 37 year old who lives at home and has never owned his own house... and the bitterness shows!

Sentiment : Strong Sell

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Re: ANYONE WHO BUYS A HOUSE IN THIS CLIMATE IS RETARDED 16-Jan-10 09:31 PM

Lots of these frustrated 37 year olds around - and getting dangerously close to the moustaches and early signs of mid life crises which arrive around 40. Would not wish those on any co- habitating Mum and Dad. But then - if still at home its maybe a Beemer M3. If in hock to a Mortgage of the size seemingly current its - well a Peugeot 206 - probably very old. You take your choice .....

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Re:WE NEED OVER INFLATED PRICES TO FALL ITS CALLED A MARKET CORRECTION 25-Apr-09 12:18 AM

WHY WOULD ANYONE(EXCEPT THE GOVERNMENT)WHO WANT TO TAX US WANT HOUSE PRICES TO RISE. PEOPLE WHO BOUGHT AT THE TOP OF THE MARKET OR GOT NINJA LOANS TOUGH TITTY YOU LIVE AND LEARN. BUT HOUSES PRICES ARE GOING TO FALL FOR 3YEARS AT LEAST. IF THEY DO GO UP IT WILL BE THE GOV REINFLATING THE CURRENCY. WE WILL HAVE HYPERINFLATION AND A CAN OF COKE WILL COST A FIVER LOL

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(8 Ratings)

Re: Re:WE NEED OVER INFLATED PRICES TO FALL ITS CALLED A MARKET CORRECTION 19-May-09 10:28 AM

Of couse you are quite right house prices are too high out of all proportion. eg in 1939 the average price of a house was £450 of about 3 times average income in 1960 there was a similar ratio inspite a severe shortage of properties no doubt kept in check by prudent lending from mainly building societies but then in the late 80's there was "an economic miraclel" and today if average income is £25k the average house price is £175K the ratio is 7:1. Not what, I'd have thought, anyone could call economic progress

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Re: Re:WE NEED OVER INFLATED PRICES TO FALL ITS CALLED A MARKET CORRECTION 6-Jun-09 04:17 PM

Its not progress, but welcome to the real world, we use average stats to explain too much, as many houses are bought with cash as with wages, so the comparison is irrelevant

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Actually 3.6 x HOUSEHOLD income 16-Oct-09 09:41 PM

What these figures don't mention, primarily as they're used to grab headlines, is that the truth of the matter is that HOUSEHOLD income in the UK is massively higher than it was 30 years ago. Primarily due to the fact that around 90% of younger households (who are key to the housing market) now have two incomes as opposed to the historic norm of one bread winner. I personally don't like the fact, and would much prefer prices as they were in yester year, but unfortunately development has some negatives to go with it.

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Re: Actually 3.6 x HOUSEHOLD income 3-Nov-09 03:16 PM

It also means that as the marriage fails, you lose half the house. And men cannot be hunter gatherers - our basic instinct. And the predominent twin incomes increased prices of everything for everyone, and caused much of the inflation in all those years. And divorce rose from around 8 percent in the 1950s to around 44 percent today. Its all progress though what the positives are I struggle to see .....

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Re: Actually 3.6 x HOUSEHOLD income 4-Nov-09 01:07 AM

44% of marriage failures compared to the 1950's is a big difference but when you then consider the percentage of couples that don't even bother getting married in the first place compared to the 1950's...the percentage is alot higher than 44% ;0)

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Re: Actually 3.6 x HOUSEHOLD income 4-Nov-09 07:33 AM

Yes in the US its now greater than 50 percent. Soon its likely the UK will be the same. This means that each person going down the isle is embarking on a 1 in 2 chance gamble. Dreadfully un romantic of course. And the costs of failure both financial and emotional are huge, probably far greater for men. Couple that with the almost always factor that the woman asks for a divorce its not a happy situation. I think that many who would have married in previous generations are totally put off. There are of course a minority of women who see men as "baby contractors". Offspring are far more important to them than men .... This is a severely CONTRAVERSIAL post ....

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Re: Actually 3.6 x HOUSEHOLD income 8-Jan-10 12:01 PM

Too much lust not enough commitment - but then - to the religious zealots like Gysmys and the RC loonies lust does not exist. Then again ... humans appear to be the only animals who practice marriage - why is that?

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Re: Re:WE NEED OVER INFLATED PRICES TO FALL ITS CALLED A MARKET CORRECTION 3-Nov-09 02:59 PM

You cant really compare prices from 1939 or 1960 as today many things are included that in those days were not e.g double glazing,central heating better plumbing more electrical systems bathroom fittings etc..I think you would find it hard to build a decent size house today for 3 times average earnings even if you were given the land.

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Re: Re:WE NEED OVER INFLATED PRICES TO FALL ITS CALLED A MARKET CORRECTION 3-Nov-09 02:55 PM

I presume the investment king from belfast has'nt got any money to take advantage of the property market as for falling HP's for the next 3 years that may be true in belfast cos who wants to live in that $%^& hole.

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Re: House prices falling, rents falling 24-Nov-09 05:09 PM

real repo sell of will come when interest rates rise by june prob. .then 30% drop is very possible .rental property will then be in demand

Sentiment : Hold

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(1 Rating)

Re: House prices falling, rents falling 24-Nov-09 05:10 PM

real repo sell of will come when interest rates rise by june prob. .then 30% drop is very possible .rental property will then be in demand

Sentiment : Hold

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Re: House prices falling, rents falling 12-Feb-09 11:38 AM

Ian,

Worthwhile research.

Tis axiomatic (no "bloomer").

But you'll only be branded a "doomer" (again and again).

Fundy.

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Re: House prices falling, rents falling 12-Feb-09 11:54 AM

Ian,
Are you saying we should disregard all indexes and take what you (a self proclaimed doom god) say you were told from people you despise as factual evidence?

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Re: House prices falling, rents falling 12-Feb-09 11:59 AM

Ian -

I believe that the rental market may be suffering a bit in some other places, but I can happily report that I have just greedily let a place for a FURTHER rent increase of just under 9%. As I commented on the other thread, I thought I might have to take a cut, but not at all.

There were more viewings and higher demand than before, although (it has to be said) that many of the contracts/ offers made were based on very short terms (one was for only 3 months, with an option to roll to 6). But shorter terms mean higher rent.

In the end I got the same increased price that they were offering but for a 6 month contract, with an option to roll beyond a year.

The estate agent I was using was able to provide a steady stream. I asked about business and they were keen to talk. Start of Jan saw a change in the market with renters suddenly appearing like a flock of migratory birds after a very quiet Q4 2008.

EA had planned to cut back on hours during Jan, but those plans were now very much on hold (I got a call from them at one point past 8PM).

Yesterday when I went to retrieve my 2nd set of keys form them it took about 5 minutes as they were so busy there was no one available, and I was getting hackey looks off people that thought I was trying to jump the renters' (rentees'?) queue. I soon put their minds at rest by saying "out of my way plebs, I am a landlord" (not really!)

So, perhaps where you are is a "renters market", and perhaps I just happened to get lucky.

Regardless, at the time of writing I can say that I know for a fact that some areas have very high demand for rented accommodation.

The numbers bare out what you say on sales, but I don't think you give enough credence to the fact that lots of sellers are withdrawing their houses from the market. I.e. the majority of people are not prepared to sell at current achievable prices.

I know you believe that "prices are made at the margin", but sellers disagree with current pricing. So if there are enough buyers at current prices there won't be enough sellers.

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(8 Ratings)

Re: House prices falling, rents falling 12-Feb-09 12:24 PM

I am seeking to establish facts - I deeply distrust Brown and his statistics and was unsure whether to trust HBOS (showing a price rise) or instead to trust Nationwide (showing a price fall).

So I went out and tested my contacts and found out for myself.

-all the agencies in the areas in which I looked, or those where I chatted- were empty - no buyers, no sellers, and fewer staff than a year ago.

declan - it sounds like you are in a student area??? Where is this bouyant market?

Maybe we are in very different markets? The other comment on rentals I received was that company lets had dried up - and companies tended to pay best prices for best properties. Furthermore the comment was that tenants in many of these affluent 4 bed houses were 'trading-down' in rentals to save money - and landlords were ceding rental yields

Sentiment : Strong Sell

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(1 Rating)

Re: House prices falling, rents falling 12-Feb-09 12:57 PM

Ian, If we are to believe you, you have way too much time on your hands. You waste peoples time as your not going to buy anything.

Your the first person I have ever heard of that went around all the estate agents in their area counting staff number and people going in and out and has compared them doing the same thing again this year.

You have problems, if you don't want to buy a house, don't. To try and justify it by harassing / spying / stalking estate agents is insane.

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(9 Ratings)

Re: House prices falling, rents falling 12-Feb-09 01:18 PM

i let a one bed flat in e2 (bethgreen/shoreditch) quite 650 sq ft conversion this time last year for 275/month on a 12 month contract, it took 2 weeks. This year same flat just let for 315 per week on a 12 month contract, again it took just over 2 weeks to rent.
In cardiff bay my other flat has not been vacent for more than 2 weeks over the past 4 years, this year rent rose from 725 per month to 740 per month.
2 examples for your attention. you do the math.

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(5 Ratings)

Re: House prices falling, rents falling 22-Feb-09 02:01 PM

Lewis James -

You are quite right in what you say but you are also talking about two locations that are prime buy to let hot-spots.

In 2007, 170,000 migrants entered the UK and around 100,000 of those settled in East London/East Greater London. Those high numbers have happened year on year, increasing since New Labour threw the doors open to the world, yet new builds completing do not even scratch the surface. So, demand is pretty high - and it always will be. Last year, over 50% of ALL the new births in London/Greater London were to immigrant mothers in the East End alone.

By comparison, Cardiff Bay is one of the largest, trendiest and most exceptional urban regeneration schemes in the country (and for those that don't know, the setting for both the Dr Who and Torchwood TV series). Subsequently, the desire to live there is very strong and demand is high.

Other, more ordinary, locations will not have seen a rent increase and those over supplied with new builds (Nottingham, Manchester, Leeds, Newcastle etc) have seen drops in rental yields.

That doesn't mean they will never see the increases you have but only that it will take longer for them to manifest

So in a way, both you and the original poster are both right - although neither of you have taken account of the fact that all markets are local

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Re: House prices falling, rents falling 26-Mar-09 11:33 AM

you have been very lucky with tenants.

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Re: House prices falling, rents falling 12-Feb-09 01:22 PM

Ian/declan
It's funny how the real word is so different from the media world; Declan and your experiences (indeed most posters) merely show just how different the property market is compared with any other and how fractured the current market is.
Whilst there seems to be no clear direction at present I interpret the current turmoil to be a clear sign of a changing market; a market changing from massive downward sentiment to one in which some confidence can now be sniffed by those with big noses and the faintest, teasing melody from a far away bandwagon can now be heard above the grumbling gloomy m$%^&.

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(2 Ratings)

Re: there are moves afoot to destroy london as a major financial capital 27-Oct-09 10:59 PM

yes it is true but it will happen swiftly. when the pound goes so will london and the country.ITS GOING TO HAPPEN AND THERE IS NOTHING TO STOP IT. THE GOV KNOW THIS SO DOES EVERYONE ELSE. THE FORMER KINGS OF THE CASTLE LONDON AND NEWYORK ARE $%^&. WHEN THE GOLD MARKETS EXPLODE THE PAPER PONZI SCHEMES WILL QUICKLY UNRAVEL.

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(2 Ratings)

Re: House prices falling, rents falling 12-Feb-09 02:03 PM

Ian -

I keep mine/ my properties' whereabouts as a closely guarded secret. I have heard that the internet is full of crazies.

But you are correct. There are quite a few students in this particular area, but not everyone that viewed the property was a student.

As to your other rental comments - I cannot comment on things I haven't seen.

But I have to say that if I had a 4 bedroom house for rent I would encourage young professionals to use it as a shared property since that would cost them less than a single flat each ... There are many websites dedicated to finding shared accommodation.

You'd probably make more than renting it on a rent-by-the-property basis too and suffer fewer voids (but need a more hands on management approach).

E.g. property rent: £1500 vs rent by room £450 each (350 for box room) PCM

It may well be that all markets have entered a period of change, but there are opportunities in any market, if you are prepared to try changing along with your market.

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Re: House prices falling, rents falling 12-Feb-09 03:53 PM

I doubt very much I will buy this year - or even 2010 as I believe that house prices are set for further major falls.

Reports posted indicate the market is fractured - well yes anecdotal evidence maybe points to that.

On the broader scale is the number and value of mortgage approvals and the salary multiples. Those facts do indicate some mild improvement in volumes but do not indicate any signs of any upturn in prices soon - indeed they point south.

other anecdotal evience that I glean from estate egents websites and from websites like rightmove etc - also point south. In six of the seven areas that I am watching there is more property for sale this year than last year (but these may also be statistical quirks) - but with fewer mortgage approvals....?

- and I can now see newer properties coming on at reduced prices as compared to 12 months ago. This is all anedoctal for the areas I am interested in.

It is incredibly difficult to read exactly what is about to happen - unless maybe you are in an area with a lot of uniform properties (e.g. flats) as every house has different characteristics - hence I take some care.

personally I dislike practices such as gazundering which I know are widely occuring. So my preference is to wait and watch - and buy when I think the time is right.

Yes there will always be the occasional buy that beats the bottom - by making a hard offer now just maybe it may be accepted. similarly the auctions are worth watching.

But so many people have become property experts watching TV programs - that I suspect many will buy now and find that in a year or so's time they have overspent by 20% - and that is a lot of money to save!

my own feeling is that it is likely there will be some improvement in house sale numbers this Spring - but with prices still falling steeply.

so I post here - occasionally - and listen - because if I am wrong - I want to know soonest

meanwhile - I challenge that this fall in house prices is in any way bad. This government wishes affordable housing (which means poorly built sub-standard council owned housing) - instead the market is delivbering on their wishes. That is great for youngsters.

secondly - it is about time this nation recognised that we need to stop building icon's and start rebuilding our business base - the base that creates the wealth that the politicians squander. Falling house prices means that we, as a nation, have to start creating wealth, not just idly sitting on an asset and watching it grow.

Thirdly just maybe our politicians will wake up to the fact that they cannot rely upon increasing taxes to get the UK economy out of this mess - they have to encourage enterprise, industry, and real job creation - not just wasting taxpayers money on more civil servants who are clueless about what they are doing. Let us hope for less government, less speed cameras, less government databases, less government waste, less control - and MORE common sense

That is my tuppence.

Sentiment : Strong Sell

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(36 Ratings)

Re: House prices falling, rents falling 12-Feb-09 03:54 PM

Sentiment : Strong Sell

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(10 Ratings)

Re: House prices falling, rents falling 12-Feb-09 04:01 PM

http://www.home.co.uk/asking_price_index...

Sentiment : Strong Sell

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(2 Ratings)

Re: House prices falling, rents falling 12-Feb-09 04:39 PM

Ian- a throughly unsurprising set of stats from Home.co.uk espec the stat that shows the prices of houses in London town falling quicker than other places.
The continued heavy cull of jobs and bonuses in the financial and commercial sectors will ensure that this trend continues.

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(1 Rating)

Re: House prices falling, rents falling 12-Feb-09 04:22 PM

Ian -

A few people on this forum (former bears all, it has to be said) have been shopping around at auctions.

They have reported that there are some bargains to be had, but more than enough auction buyers to prevent themselves getting a super-bargain.

They have all been bidding, some have been out-bid some have won.

As a separate point:

I am sure that you would include the cost of paying back a mortgage in your commentary if interest rates had risen by 4%.

Why no mention when they have fallen by 4%?

Surely it is just as significant if it is a benefit to property holders?

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(1 Rating)

Re: House prices falling, rents falling 12-Feb-09 05:47 PM

regarding investment returns - there are better with UK blue chips or overseas investments

so UK property is not attractive as an investment

people should be careful about confusing a good financing deal and a good buy - yes there are good financing deals around - and very poor investment returns for those foolish enough to accept UK bank deposit rates of interest

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Re: House prices falling, rents falling 12-Feb-09 05:51 PM

what is a good property buy?

yes there are cheap prices at auction - and definitely better than those advertsised by the high street estate agents

- but as property supply outstrips demand - prices fall - both rentals and capital values - at least where I am looking

so whilst auction prices today look attractive, auction prices tomorrow look set to be even cheaper

Sentiment : Strong Sell

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Re: House prices falling, rents falling 12-Feb-09 09:19 PM

Indeed very well put Ian.

Declan it doesnt matter how often you say low interest rates mean houses are more "affordable", in 3 years time we may well be able to buy two houses for the price of one now, I guarantee even if a person obtains a 3% mortgage they will feel absolutely sick to the stomach that they did not wait.

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Re: House prices falling, rents falling 12-Feb-09 10:07 PM

Mike I
I fear I may be turning into a property bull; maybe I've just been a bear too long.
All this talk of '2 for 1', massive oversupply, mass unemployment, return to the 30's; I've heard it all before so doomers here's what you do - get real, get off you fat one and go for a walk; walk for 15 mins and count how many houses are for sale. Now go home and pour yourself a good whisky and cast your mind back a few years.................................................
That's it, it's becoming clearer, remember those years of the Eighties with 3M + on the dole and factory closures devastating communities; remember the Nineties with 15% interest rates and swathes of repossessions.
Now come back to today.
So how many houses were for sale ? answer - no more than 20% of the number in 1992.
So how bad is it now ?

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(3 Ratings)

Re: House prices falling, rents falling 13-Feb-09 09:38 AM

Mike I

"in 3 years time we may well be able to buy two houses for the price of one now, I guarantee"

Mike - having witnessed your ability to do maths and follow logic I don't think you are in any position to offer any such guarantee.

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(1 Rating)

Re: House prices falling, rents falling 13-Feb-09 09:36 AM

Ian

"- but as property supply outstrips demand - prices fall - both rentals and capital values"

If you actually read what I say you can see that supply does NOT outstrip demand at the auctions as reported on here by several people from several different areas.

As to whether or not they made good buys - based on their willingness to weigh up evidence - all of it, not just the bits that agree with them, and the fact that many of them seem to have the option of buying with cash (so they have at least some kind of track record with investment) I would be inclined to say that their judgment is probably better than yours.

Further falls? Maybe.

But don't fall for Doomer Fallacy No. 2 ....

http://uk.messages.finance.yahoo.com/You...

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Re: House prices falling, rents falling 13-Feb-09 09:42 AM

So prices are falling...so extending from that I think we would all have to agree it is a buyers market...the argument is to what extent...doesn't the very fact that it is a buyers market imply supply > demand...just as when it was a rising markets demand > supply?

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Re: House prices falling, rents falling 13-Feb-09 09:43 AM

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Re: House prices falling, rents falling 12-Feb-09 06:07 PM

Ian, very good post.

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(6 Ratings)

Re: House prices falling, rents falling 12-Feb-09 06:52 PM

Basically, you are right, although rising house prices do tend to stimulate demand and likewise falling prices can dampen it.

However, the folk memory of this mess and the increased regulation, which will follow means that the reckless lending will stop, so a big rise in prices will probably not happen for at least another 20 years.

We do indeed need to realise that selling each other overpriced assets will not make us competiotive. It also leads to a 1% int rate premium over the euro, which is bad for our competitiveness.

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Re: House prices falling, rents falling 12-Feb-09 10:49 PM

and poses substantial risks to both the value of our currency and also our standards of living

apart from building a huge amount of debt that may prove difficult to service!

Sentiment : Strong Sell

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Re: House prices falling, rents falling 12-Feb-09 10:59 PM

http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/a...

it seems to me that the evidence is all rather one sided - with BTL landlords and estate agents and Gordon Brown saying little white lies - beware vested interests

Sentiment : Strong Sell

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Re: House prices falling, rents falling 13-Feb-09 10:03 AM

Watch out Ian.

Declan will probably write a "Doomer fallacy" just for you......

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Re: House prices falling, rents falling 19-Mar-09 06:20 PM

You certainly sound very SOUND. Well done. I am looking to buy a property down South in Devon to be nearer to my daughter and grandchildren. When to buy???? Gosh - thats the million dollar question. I have listened to your comments and wonder if I should wait until next year.. Problem is then, my grandchildren are a year older and I have missed another year with them. Thanks thought for the thoughts. Ann

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Re: House prices falling, rents falling 19-Mar-09 07:10 PM

Why oh Why?

Why are lots of people wishing for falling housing prices / rents. Is it envy or are they genuinely looking for GB to get into a deflation spiral?

Rents may have fallen marginally (that my evidence - but others will have other experiences) and house prices have fallen by about 20% + from their peaks.

Well remember falling house prices equates to less jobs, lower GDP and a weaker pound.

Lets hope we see them stabilise soon.

Sentiment : Hold

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(2 Ratings)

Re: House prices falling, rents falling 19-Mar-09 07:21 PM

It also equals realism which is want people want. At present they are basedon easy access credit which in all fairness is a poor basis. As the credit markets reduce they fall in line with what is an acceptable level which is what people want.

Affordability. No one wants to spend 80% of their income on their mortgage and thats pretty much what they need to do. If anyone begins to quote "interest only" mortgages aswell can sod rigght off.

Interest only is the most stupidest thing in existance. It should abolished and in these cases people should rent. end of.

Sorry to sound an ass, but opinions hurt .

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(1 Rating)

Re: House prices falling, rents falling 20-Mar-09 09:41 AM

N1ck -

"Interest only mortgage should be abolished"

I disagree.

It gives some FTBs a slim chance of buying somewhere at some point within the next 5 years+.

If some people want to take advantage of what IO offers, surely that is their choice, in the same way that you choose to not use them but instead harbour some small shrub of distaste with a clear root of fear.

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(2 Ratings)

Re: House prices falling, rents falling 19-Mar-09 07:23 PM

Fattie,

"Why are lots of people wishing for falling housing prices"

Bit of an obvious one - they want cheaper houses. Don't you? You, like me, could buy more when they're cheaper - oh if you've got the deposit.

Nah, let them fall - you can't have one way markets. Let young people get on the housing ladder don't be so self serving and greedy.

Less jobs, yes but too many people in overheated property market, let the market forces sort it out - you're a capitalist aren't you?

GDP, what's that? It's just a politicians tool - pointless number.

Weaker pound, well there's bigger things affecting the pound than house prices. Any road up, the bulls were saying it was a good thing a few months ago, lol.

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(1 Rating)

Re: House prices falling, rents falling 20-Mar-09 09:45 AM

DB64 -

The weak pound - "the bulls were saying it was a good thing a few months ago"

I think I was one of a very few that were in favour of a weaker pound, but I don't count myself a bull. I still am (in favour).

7% wiped of this months profits yesterday with the drop in the dollar. Boo!

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Re: House prices falling, rents falling 10-May-09 03:10 PM

Answer: Because there is a greater need for stability and sustainablity.

This will only come when units are exchanging regulary at their real value..

Sentiment : Strong Sell

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(1 Rating)

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