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JDR
"Miles away still and now looking unlikely to return to normal.(80k+)
A new normal might be needed.(60k)
"
If it happens too fast at this stage then we will definitely overshoot and either go back into bubble, or have too many sales.
A slow release of pressure seems ideal ...
"I am looking long term (10 years). You are looking in the next month. "
One day at a time, sweet jebus ...
I see troubles during Q1 '10, but I do not see economic stagnation for a decade. You'll recall the borrowing has been at ultra low rates. It would not take a lot of inflation to corrode it significantly.
What are CDOs made of? I suppose valuing them was problematic in the first place ...
"LTV is just an indicator of their loan book and has little impact compared to loan performance."
It's the confidence ...
Half a % here or there adds up. Since March we have seen, what? 5-8% or so?
If that seems insignificant, how would it look if it was an additional fall of 5-8% instead?
I do not think that debt reduction will continue past christmas.
In fact I am pretty sure that by the end of February, banks will be on a lending spree. The BoE may even be charging to keep money on deposit.
Otherwise Grodon Brown will be wrestling bank CEOs to the ground and threatening to fart in their mouths.
It is a powerful argument.
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